Item Talk:Well-tended Wild Flower Field

I think we should remove these drop percentages from the page. The droprates of all farmer fields (or most, not quite sure about westfold tier) changed a lot with rohan, and also 19 is too little to have any accurate or close to accurate rates. Better no info than not reliable info, in this case. I would like to test them myself and just update it, but I can't, so that's also an option if anyone has the recipe and time/patience to do a test with 100 or something. The other field percentages have a lot more tests, but yet one of them manages to be 0%... I wonder if it really doesn't drop or was just an issue of luck. Gwenwyfar (talk) 20:28, 22 November 2012 (EST)

I do have the recipe and could do some testing, if that's what we want, but I'd lean towards taking out the percentages. I don't have the background in statistics, but I'm always skeptical when people present results like these. It can't be significant that one has a drop rate of 37% and another is 42% when that actually only means a difference of one field. The yarrow and woad might indeed be very common, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will drop 100% of the time. Unless we do a truly astronomical number of tests, it doesn't prove anything. Or maybe if somebody here does know statistics, you can steer me right, as to how many trials are needed to have real meaning.

I hear the scholar item drop rates went way up with Rohan, and then this recent patch 8.1 "slightly decreased the drop rate of dye component drops from farming nodes." Does that include this recipe, which is specifically designed for dye components? Hard to tell exactly. It seems like the kind of thing they could fiddle on the back end if they want, without notifying us, and our numbers would become outdated. -- Elinnea (talk) 21:30, 22 November 2012 (EST)

I collected those original statistics. It is certain that they changed with the recent update, as there is now the small possibility for the legendary crafting materials to drop. For the well tended fields, the percent of yarrow and woad was 100%. I have used these stats to guess how many crops I will need to get a enough of a particular ingredient. In this case, 19 samples is small, but, in comparison with the other drop rates, one has a feel for where the rates are trending. Huge numbers of crops are not required to get a sense of the relative drop rates between the different results, which is the intended goal of the percentages.

I do plan to recollect the stats, when I run out of fun things to do in Rohan! If you don't want to see those stats on the regular pages, I don't mind putting them on one of my sandbox pages, in fact that might be easier for me to maintain, just harder for others to find.

-- RingTailCat (talk) 22:26, 22 November 2012 (EST)

I suggest rounding those values and perhaps use 1:10, 3:10, ..., or maybe percent but rounded to 10 or maybe 5. IMHO 37% sounds very definite and not so much "approximate". With rounding it suffices with shorter test runs, otherwise I believe you need to quite a few hundred fields to establish values such as 37% with a variance less than 0.5% per stated result -- I cannot be asked to do the statistics for exactly how many fields, but if you want to I can do it ;)

In the end of the day, do you think a Farmer cares whether he gets exactly 37 X from 100 fields? Or 35 or 40? -- Zimoon 02:31, 23 November 2012 (EST)