Probability in LOTRO
Probability in LOTRO
- The biggest mistake that LOTRO players constantly make has to do with their comprehension and understanding of probabilities -- i.e. the "Crit Rate" or the "Drop Rate."
- This is a very brief attempt to describe the mathmatical concept of Probability Theory - the measure of the likelhood that an event will occur. If you want a more in-depth explanation, visit your local High-School or College Math department. The concepts are not new, simply very mis-understood.
- another brief source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
- The 5% chance typically indicated for those referenced occurrences is applied uniquely to EACH AND EVERY ATTEMPT -- probability is NOT cumulative across multiple attempts!
- The classic example is the coin-toss. There is a 50% probability that any coin-toss will come up heads on each toss. If you throw 10 coin tosses in a row and you get 10 tails, the probability that your 11th toss will come up heads is still 50%!
- If you run an instance once or 10 times, you still only have a 5% chance that an item will drop on that particular run. If you craft an item once or 10 times, you still only have a 5% chance that an item will Crit on that particular attempt
- Many things in LOTRO have very low probabilities of occurrence - .5% to 5%. (Yes one half of 1%.) Certain things, such as crafting can have "stuff" consumed which will increase that Critical Chance from 5% to 40% or even 75% -- things like fancy crafting tools, specific ingredients or special scrolls.
- Other things such as Traits will give you an increase of 1% per level of Trait points applied - such as a Minstrel's Critical Strikes which increases from 1% to 5% as you apply up to 5 Trait Points. https://lotro-wiki.com/index.php/Critical_Strikes.
- Sadly, the Drop Rate has no such "enhancers" available. It is what it is. If T1 runs have a 5% Drop Rate, there is nothing you can do to change that -- you can get a rabbit's foot; or fuzzy dice; or jump around 3 times widdershins while clapping your hands over your head -- none of those will alter that 5% Drop rate. They are "hard-coded" by Turbine.
- Keep in mind that Turbine is constantly "Tweeking" the different components of your character's performance. All in the name of achieving "balance" - of class vs class and player vs Creature. Changes are constantly being made to the values afforded to vaious buffs and debuffs which various items supply. The WIKI attempts to keep current with the latest information, but as we have no pipeline of information from Turbine, we always lag behind what has changed in the game.