# Probability in LOTRO

### Probability in LOTRO

The biggest mistake that LOTRO players constantly make has to do with their comprehension and understanding of probabilities -- i.e. the "Crit Rate" or the "Drop Rate."
This is a very brief attempt to describe the mathmatical concept of Probability Theory - the measure of the likelhood that an event will occur. If you want a more in-depth explanation, visit your local High-School or College Math department. The concepts are not new, simply very mis-understood.
another brief source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
The 5% chance typically indicated for those referenced occurrences is applied uniquely to EACH AND EVERY ATTEMPT -- probability is NOT cumulative across multiple attempts!
The classic example is the coin-toss. There is a 50% probability that any coin-toss will come up heads on each toss. If you throw 10 coin tosses in a row and you get 10 tails, the probability that your 11th toss will come up heads is still 50%!
If you run an instance once or 10 times, you still only have a 5% chance that an item will drop on that particular run. If you craft an item once or 10 times, you still only have a 5% chance that an item will Crit on that particular attempt
Many things in LOTRO have very low probabilities of occurrence - .5% to 5%. (Yes one half of 1%.) Certain things, such as crafting can have "stuff" consumed which will increase that Critical Chance from 5% to 40% or even 75% -- things like fancy crafting tools, specific ingredients or special scrolls.
Other things such as Traits will give you an increase of 1% per level of Trait points applied - such as a Minstrel's Critical Strikes which increases from 1% to 5% as you apply up to 5 Trait Points. https://lotro-wiki.com/index.php/Critical_Strikes.
Sadly, the Drop Rate has no such "enhancers" available. It is what it is. If T1 runs have a 5% Drop Rate, there is nothing you can do to change that -- you can get a rabbit's foot; or fuzzy dice; or jump around 3 times widdershins while clapping your hands over your head -- none of those will alter that 5% Drop rate. They are "hard-coded" by Turbine.