Item Talk:Spring Festival Box (Green)

"May contain: Tome of the Large Shrew"

Hi; how big is the chance (in %) for the enormous shrew in it? ^^ Maybe this is a known percentage, but googling was futile. —Marillion (talk) 12:41, 13 June 2015 (UTC)

To the best of my knowledge, Turbine has never disclosed such information. Much of this type of information is simply described as "rare" or "slight" - with no further comparison or benchmark relationship information. Players can sometimes generate rough estimates of this information if they manage to accumulate enough "samples" to allow some math magic to be performed. See: Rating to percentage formula.

Additionally, Turbine can and does adjust the "drop rates" routinely -- such as with the current "Loot Box Week" (13-18 June 2015).

In this particular case, I believe that the Enormous Shrew is only (potentially?) awarded to the player who actually stomps it. Furthermore, there are often a minimum number of players required to trigger a specific reward.

• Also, keep in mind -- the % chance number you seek is PER ATTEMPT -- it is NOT cumulative across a number of attempts.

If there is a 5% chance, that means on every attempt you have a 5% chance of success. It does NOT mean that if you make 100 attempts that you should get 5 successes. This mis-understanding is common in the crafting arena while looking for Critical Successes.

Wm Magill - Valamar - OTG/OTC - talk 15:33, 13 June 2015 (UTC)

Thank you. Yes, of course it's not cumulative, and even a 5% chance might result in 0 successes after 100 attempts. Theoretically, it's even possible that a 5% chance results in 0 successes after 9,999 attempts, but that's extremely improbable. :D However, I got my giant elephant mouse by catching it directly a few days ago! =) —Marillion (talk) 13:53, 30 June 2015 (UTC)